Chelsea’s bid for a top-five finish and Champions League qualification will be decided over a demanding final run of fixtures, with squad fitness and home form likely to be key factors.
Chelsea enter the final stretch of the Premier League season with Champions League qualification still within reach, sitting fourth in the table. However, a narrow points gap to teams below them and a difficult fixture list — ranked sixth-hardest in the league — threaten to derail their campaign. While recent performances have been inconsistent, the return of key players like Cole Palmer, Nicolas Jackson, and Noni Madueke may offer renewed momentum.
Data from Opta suggests Chelsea are likely to finish sixth, with their probability of securing a top-four spot dropping from 78.5% in December to just over 26% now. Despite this, Stamford Bridge remains a fortress — Chelsea are unbeaten at home in 2025 — and five of their final nine games will be played there. If Enzo Maresca’s side can rediscover pre-Christmas form and improve their away results, a Champions League place is still within their grasp.
