Cole Palmer’s recent drop in goals and assists has raised questions about his form, yet advanced metrics suggest his underlying production remains steady despite the increased defensive attention from opponents.
Chelsea’s attacking midfielder Cole Palmer, once hailed as a Premier League breakout star with six goals and five assists in his first seven league appearances during the 2023‑24 season, has seen a noticeable decline in his direct contributions. Since the October international break, Palmer has scored eight goals (including two penalties) and provided only one assist in 17 league games, marking his longest goal- and assist-less stretch. Critics have pointed to his recent performance—especially during a string of matches where he created 32 chances in 11 games without registering an assist—as evidence of a potential regression. However, detailed analysis shows that when penalties are excluded, his scoring rate and non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 minutes have remained consistent with his breakout season.
Manager Enzo Maresca praised Palmer for showing leadership in difficult moments, noting that his willingness to ask for the ball in the second half was a positive sign. Yet, the overall decline in his assists is not due to a reduction in his ability to create opportunities—Palmer actually leads the Premier League in chances created—but rather the failure of his teammates to convert those opportunities. This statistical nuance suggests that Palmer’s issue might not be an individual decline in performance, but rather a reflection of the surrounding team’s inefficiency in the final third. With 14 games remaining in the season, there is cautious optimism that if his teammates can capitalise on the chances he creates, Palmer could match or even surpass his previous season’s output.
